Mushtaq Travel

Bad weather and technical failure are two key areas for the inquiry

As Pakistan authorities launch an investigation into the crash of the Airblue Airbus A321 near Islamabad, Jim Ferguson, an aviation expert based in Aberdeen, Scotland, discusses some of the possible scenarios.

“Until the plane’s ‘black box’ flight recorders are found, we simply will not know what caused this crash. There are so many unanswered questions.

It could be a combination of many things. But from the reports I have seen, the weather could be the villain of the piece. If you’ve ever been in monsoon rain, you know how serious it is.

But whatever the weather, this is an accident which should not have happened. Monsoons happen every year in Pakistan – they are nothing new to aviation.

So my first question is: Was this plane trying to land in weather conditions which were below the agreed minimum for the aircraft? And did the pilot have any other option?

It would have been up to the crew to make a decision about whether or not to land. Because no matter the weather, the airport would have remained open.

We need to know what the actual weather was at the time of the crash. What was the visibility? Was there fog? Was there a cross wind? Was there any wind shear or nasty microbursts (downdrafts) hidden in the monsoon?

And it would be useful to know what Airblue’s minimum conditions for landing were. I would guess a visibility of half a mile and a cloud base of 500ft. But that is a guess.

Throughout the journey, the crew should have been given regular weather updates. Each time they have to decide – is it worth continuing?

We don’t know what information the crew had been given. But the Pakistani authorities will be wanting to know why the aircraft took off from Karachi in the first place.

Were the crew unwise to do so? And were they unwise to continue?”

The bad weather in Islamabad begs the question: Did the aircraft have enough fuel to divert to another airport?

A plane should always carry enough fuel to reach its destination, plus an allowance for circling and enough spare fuel to reach a nominated alternative airport.

Karachi to Islamabad is around two hours flying time, so the pilot may not have had enough fuel for a round trip. But they should certainly have had enough to divert.”

“Was this a navigational error by the pilot?

Some reports indicate the plane may have been circling before an attempt to land. If so, was this its first attempt?

I have to assume that it was. Because I haven’t heard any reports of an overshoot.

It is possible that the plane had already made an approach, taken a look and thought – I don’t fancy that, and gone for another circle. But nobody has said anything yet about an aborted landing procedure.

If you are going to circle for a while, there is a safety height below which you should not descend. Usually it is the height of the tallest nearby hill, plus a couple of thousand feet for clearance. Was the plane below that height? And if so, why?

To help the pilot navigate, we know there are a couple of navigation beacons around Islamabad. But we do not know if there is an instrument landing system. If there is, was it working? Was it affected by the heavy monsoon rain?”

“Was there a problem with the plane’s navigational systems?

The Airbus is a complicated aeroplane and it doesn’t let people down. Not often anyway. Everything should work, no matter the weather.

To measure your altitude, the plane has a barometric altimeter, which you set to local pressure. You should also have a radar altimeter, and a ground proximity warning system (GPWS) which tells you ‘Pull up. Pull up’.

When it says that, you put the throttles forward and climb like a homesick angel. You’ve got to otherwise you’re going to wrap yourself around a hill.

The system is quite unreal. You can input the details of your whole flight when you take off – all the beacons and the heights you want to do – and sit back and let the plane do it for you. But in bad weather like that, most guys would be going for it hands on.

As for the airline’s safety record, this appears to be the first major accident that Airblue have had.”

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ISLAMABAD: The national flag carrier Pakistan International Airlines would face a revenue loss of US $30 million if the flight operations to Europe, USA and the United Kingdom continued to be hampered by the Icelandic volcanic ash clouds till Thursday.

“Over 75 flights to USA, the UK and Europe have so far been canceled to international destinations since Thursday last,” PIA’s spokesman Syed Sultan Hassan said.

He said PIA managed to operate one flight for the 320 stranded PIA’s passengers at the Paris airport since Thursday. The flight adopting a new rout through South Atlantic would reach New York at 2200 hours (Pakistan Standard Time) on Tuesday.

The stranded passengers included 70 senior, 16 infants and three ill people. PIA provided them maximum facilities at the airport and also accommodation in hotels, he said.

The airline also managed to operate direct flights from Pakistan to Toronto through the new route while the United States government has been asked to lift ban on operation of direct flights between Pakistan and the US, at least till the situation of volcanic ash is subsided.

The US had banned direct flight operations from Pakistan due to security reason in the aftermath of 9/11 incident. He said that a flight from Lahore to Oslo was operated on Tuesday following a special permission from the concerned authorities, carrying over 250 passengers.

Sultan said that other 80 transit passengers of PIA have been stuck up at different airports in Europe and the airline is making utmost efforts to take them to their respective destinations.

Answering a question, he said that the airline has strictly been adhering to the direction of Prime Minister
Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani whereby giving priority to the students, workers, patients and general travellers to various destinations in Europe, the UK and USA.

He said the airline has undertaken all the arrangements to reinitiate flights operations within shortest possible time of two to three hours after the announcement to allow the flight operations.

ISLAMABAD: The pilot of a Pakistan International Airlines flight annoyed passengers by singing a Bollywood song to call an airhostess to bring his meal to the cockpit.

The pilot was unaware that his “message” to the airhostess could be heard all over the aircraft, thanks to an open mike. The incident occurred on a flight from Islamabad to Karachi last night. “Aa bhi jao sanam, tujh ko meri kasam”, the pilot sang n an airhostess rushed to the cockpit with a food tray.

The faux pas happened because the pilot was unaware that the mike had not been switched off by the cabin crew after an earlier announcement. The passengers found the pilot’s behaviour “uncivilised and uncultured” and demanded an apology, a TV news channel reported. Following the protests by passengers, the pilot apologized — first in English and then in Urdu. Reported Mar 20, 2010