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The Islamabad crash that killed 152 people – the biggest disaster in Pakistan’s aviation history – has opened a Pandora’s box of questions about the local air industry.

The national aircraft carrier, Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), has long been plagued with operational issues.

Its flights were banned by the European Union in 2007 because of concerns over safety.

These centred on an ageing fleet. The problem was highlighted in July 2006, when 45 people died in a crash on take-off in the central city of Multan.

A government investigation blamed the ageing aircraft. But critics maintained that falling standards in Pakistan’s booming airline industry were the main cause.

Officials say the Airblue plane that crashed was properly maintained

The industry saw the emergence of private airlines in the mid-1990s.

PIA had been the only domestic carrier for most of the country’s history. But that changed after the government allowed private airlines to operate.

Until 2000, however, most private airlines found it difficult to compete with the stated-funded PIA, and many folded under economic pressure.

Since then, the industry has boomed because of economic growth and a massive increase in domestic demand.

Private airlines have also started operating routes to Europe, and particulary to the UK, which has a large Pakistani community.

Maintenance

But critics say the proliferation of routes and business was not met with matching aviation and safety standards.

They say some companies do not maintain their aircraft as regularly as they should.

Concerns have been raised about Airblue.

An employee of Pakistan’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) told the BBC that in 2008, one of Airblue’s aircraft had been grounded in Manchester in the UK – he said an inspector had noted a serious fault with the aircraft several months earlier, and the problem had not been fixed.

Raheel Ahmed, marketing general manager for Airblue, denied this and told the BBC that all aircraft in service had been listed as airworthy by the CAA.

“I have been working with Airblue for the last five years and no such incident comes to my mind. I should add that the company has the most up-to-date aircraft in Pakistan.”

There has been no suggestion of past maintenance or technical problems in connection with the aircraft that crashed in Islamabad.

Junaid Amin, the head of the CAA, said: “No aircraft with maintainance requirements can be allowed to fly by the CAA. We maintain the same international standards as those practiced worldwide.”

But former pilots and critics of the industry say the CAA does not always abide by these standards.

“There are several instances when the CAA has been at fault for technical difficulties later developed in the flight,” an experienced PIA pilot told the BBC.

“For example, the crash in 2006 was due to the plane being overweight. This was clear at the time it was deemed ready to fly – by the CAA.”

CAA investigations are generally never made public. However Aijaz Haroon, a CAA board member and head of PIA, denies that there was anything wrong with the plane.

“The 2006 crash was due to an error on the part of the pilot – he forgot to pull up the landing gear while the plane was taking off.”

Mr Haroon also says the investigation reports are sent to the pilot’s association and relevant bodies – and that members of the public can access them.

Experienced pilot

Plane safety is not the only issue – the physical ability of pilots has also been a cause of concern.

“Pilots are now forced to fly hours much in excess of those deemed as viable,” AM Rabbani, secretary general of the Pakistan Association of Airline Pilots (Palpa), says.

“This is primarily because a new regulation implemented by the CAA.”

But Mr Aijaz Haroon says the associatiom is trying to politicise the issue.

The PIA, CAA and Palpa have a long history of disputes over work-related issues.

“This is not the time for recriminations,” he says. “There is no substance at all in any of their claims.”

In addition, industry experts say the traffic-control protocols and navigation aids in Islamabad airport leave much to be desired.

“Why was the plane circling at 1,600ft when the minimum for Islamabad is 3,000ft?” a local aviation told the BBC.

At the moment, the jury remains out on which of these factors played a pivotal role in the disaster.

But what is certain is that a thorough and public investigation is needed to answer questions about the 28 July disaster.

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Bad weather and technical failure are two key areas for the inquiry

As Pakistan authorities launch an investigation into the crash of the Airblue Airbus A321 near Islamabad, Jim Ferguson, an aviation expert based in Aberdeen, Scotland, discusses some of the possible scenarios.

“Until the plane’s ‘black box’ flight recorders are found, we simply will not know what caused this crash. There are so many unanswered questions.

It could be a combination of many things. But from the reports I have seen, the weather could be the villain of the piece. If you’ve ever been in monsoon rain, you know how serious it is.

But whatever the weather, this is an accident which should not have happened. Monsoons happen every year in Pakistan – they are nothing new to aviation.

So my first question is: Was this plane trying to land in weather conditions which were below the agreed minimum for the aircraft? And did the pilot have any other option?

It would have been up to the crew to make a decision about whether or not to land. Because no matter the weather, the airport would have remained open.

We need to know what the actual weather was at the time of the crash. What was the visibility? Was there fog? Was there a cross wind? Was there any wind shear or nasty microbursts (downdrafts) hidden in the monsoon?

And it would be useful to know what Airblue’s minimum conditions for landing were. I would guess a visibility of half a mile and a cloud base of 500ft. But that is a guess.

Throughout the journey, the crew should have been given regular weather updates. Each time they have to decide – is it worth continuing?

We don’t know what information the crew had been given. But the Pakistani authorities will be wanting to know why the aircraft took off from Karachi in the first place.

Were the crew unwise to do so? And were they unwise to continue?”

The bad weather in Islamabad begs the question: Did the aircraft have enough fuel to divert to another airport?

A plane should always carry enough fuel to reach its destination, plus an allowance for circling and enough spare fuel to reach a nominated alternative airport.

Karachi to Islamabad is around two hours flying time, so the pilot may not have had enough fuel for a round trip. But they should certainly have had enough to divert.”

“Was this a navigational error by the pilot?

Some reports indicate the plane may have been circling before an attempt to land. If so, was this its first attempt?

I have to assume that it was. Because I haven’t heard any reports of an overshoot.

It is possible that the plane had already made an approach, taken a look and thought – I don’t fancy that, and gone for another circle. But nobody has said anything yet about an aborted landing procedure.

If you are going to circle for a while, there is a safety height below which you should not descend. Usually it is the height of the tallest nearby hill, plus a couple of thousand feet for clearance. Was the plane below that height? And if so, why?

To help the pilot navigate, we know there are a couple of navigation beacons around Islamabad. But we do not know if there is an instrument landing system. If there is, was it working? Was it affected by the heavy monsoon rain?”

“Was there a problem with the plane’s navigational systems?

The Airbus is a complicated aeroplane and it doesn’t let people down. Not often anyway. Everything should work, no matter the weather.

To measure your altitude, the plane has a barometric altimeter, which you set to local pressure. You should also have a radar altimeter, and a ground proximity warning system (GPWS) which tells you ‘Pull up. Pull up’.

When it says that, you put the throttles forward and climb like a homesick angel. You’ve got to otherwise you’re going to wrap yourself around a hill.

The system is quite unreal. You can input the details of your whole flight when you take off – all the beacons and the heights you want to do – and sit back and let the plane do it for you. But in bad weather like that, most guys would be going for it hands on.

As for the airline’s safety record, this appears to be the first major accident that Airblue have had.”

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